Wednesday 20th March 2013
On many previous occasions I have mentioned that forecasting is a very complex and inaccurate business. As a statistician, I have never been comfortable forecasting a commodity movement without a good degree of accuracy...
Thursday 20th December 2012
We are rapidly approaching the end of an eventful 2012. The New Year will bring a lot of forecasts by ‘experts’ on any topic imaginable. In my experience the ‘experts’ will be 80-90% wrong. Why is that? Let us look at a simple example…
Wednesday 26th September 2012
When Mintec was founded, Ronald Reagan was US president, Margaret Thatcher was the UK's prime minster, Gorbachev was struggling with perestroika and China was still in deep communism. Mintec celebrates its 30 year anniversary this month and we are still going strong!
Wednesday 30th May 2012
Recently the news in Europe has been dominated by the precarious situation of the Euro and has led me to think about impact on businesses should Greece potentially leave the Euro. Some organisations with close links to Greece would clearly suffer. However in most cases I do not believe we will notice a lot of change.
Tuesday 28th February 2012
How to understand numbers around us? That depends on the presenter. We would view with cynicism any number provided by a politician, yet we would celebrate the meteorologist telling us about a period of forthcoming glorious sunshine. We would look at the results of medical research with a certain leaning
Tuesday 13th December 2011
We have just returned from the Food Ingredients 2011 exhibition in Paris. For the past 25 years the event has been the platform for showcasing the development and evolution of the food and beverage industry and this year’s talking point was largely centred on stevia sweetener.
Friday 30th September 2011
I have just read an old book called Green Rust written in 1920 by Edgar Wallace. It is a detective story revolving around a doctor who developed a germ which on application, instantly killed wheat fields. His idea was to set up a network of agents to destroy most of the world wheat crops ...