Vegetable oil prices rose over the month as concerns remained over the state of the soyabean crop in South America. Dairy prices continued to weaken as milk supply has been better than expected. Sharp increases were seen in the energy market following a very cold spell across the continent.
|Benzene (EU)||+17%||Dried Apricots (TR)||-12%|
|Brent Crude (ICE)||+10%||Lamb (NZ)||-11%|
|Potatoes (DE)||+8%||Arabica Coffee (ICE)||-9%|
|Tin (LME)||+8%||Butter (NL)||-8%|
|Milling Wheat (DE)||+6%||Orange Juice (ICE)||-7%|
|Soyabean Oil (CBOT)||+5%||Olive Oil (ES)||-3%|
All percentage changes in this report refer to price movements over the month of February.
Arabica coffee fell (-9%) on ICE, weighed down by a good production outlook in Brazil, the world's largest producer. Arabica output in the country could rise 17% year-on-year in the 2012/13 season which will get underway in April. Robusta coffee was up (+2%) on LIFFE. The price of cocoa and its products was largely unchanged over the month. Cocoa beans fell slightly on LIFFE (-1%) but remained steady on ICE (0%). In the UK, prices were unchanged for cocoa powder (0%) and cocoa butter (0%). A large carry-over stock of cocoa beans from the 2010/11 season could be offset by a 100,000 tonne supply deficit this season. Supplies of good quality West African beans have been tight, with production expected to fall by 12% year-on-year in both Ivory Coast and Ghana. Tea prices were up in both Kenya (+2%) and Sri Lanka (+1%), supported by lower global production. Total output from Kenya, India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Malawi, which make up 55% of global tea exports, fell by 16m kg year-on-year in 2011 to 1,865m kg. World sugar prices rose on LIFFE (+4%) and on ICE (+3%). Molasses were also up (+8%) in Germany.
Oils & Fats
Vegetable oil prices rose over the past month supported by uncertainty over the size of the South American soyabean crop. Soyabean oil rose on both CBOT (+5%) and Argentina (+5%) as further reductions have been made to the crop in Argentina as dryness has reduced crop yields. Sunflower oil rose in Rotterdam (+6%) and Argentina (+6%) due to increased demand. Palm oil prices also ended up in Rotterdam (+6%) and Malaysia (+3%) as palm oil production growth from Malaysia in 2012 is expected to be much reduced from the good production growth seen in 2011. Rapeseed oil rose slightly (+2%) in Rotterdam, with prices still trading at a premium compared to sunflower oil. In lauric oils, coconut oil was down in the Philippines (-3%) and in Rotterdam (-1%). Palm kernel oil rose in Malaysia (+2%) and in Rotterdam (+4%). Linseed oil rose in Argentina (+5%) but remained unchanged (0%) in Belgium. In Spain, olive oil futures fell (-3%) while extra virgin olive oil declined slightly (-1%).
Milling wheat futures fell slightly (-1%) on Paris LIFFE, while in the spot market milling wheat prices saw increases in the UK (+3%) and Germany (+6%) but a slight decline was seen in France (-1%). News of reduced Ukrainian exports supported prices later in the month. Feed wheat prices were steady (0%) on London LIFFE. US maize prices rose over the month (+2%) on CBOT, while in the EU maize futures were down slightly (-1%). Maize spot prices continued to rise in France (+6%), Germany (+7%) and Argentina (+2%). Feed quality barley was mixed, with declines seen in France (-2%) but increases in Germany (+3%) and the UK (+7%). Malting quality barley fell slightly in France (-1%) and the Czech Republic (-1%). Oats prices recovered from last month's falls in both the US (+4%) and UK (+2%). Rice prices in Thailand ended the month up (+2%) after early falls, but Vietnamese prices were down (-2%). US rice on CBOT rose (+3%). Prices declines were seen for EU durum wheat (-15%) and Canadian durum wheat (-7%).
In Europe, the price of peanuts from both the US (+2%) and Brazil (+2%) remained supported by a severe shortage in the US and globally. Peanuts from Argentina were down (-1%) however, as an increase in planted area could help the country produce a second consecutive bumper crop in 2011/12. Cashew nuts rose in India (+4%) and Rotterdam (+4%). Spanish almonds saw sharp increases (+12%) while the rise in Turkish hazelnuts (+1%) was more modest. In dried fruit, Turkish dried apricots (-12%) saw considerable falls, reflecting strong domestic supplies this season. Declines were also seen for Turkish raisins (-1%) and Philippine desiccated coconut (-1%). Potato starch was down in Italy (-6%) and tapioca starch fell in Thailand (-1%). In India, prices fell for chilli (-10%), ginger (-7%) and coriander (-2%) while prices were unchanged for cumin (0%) and black pepper (0%). Also in India, increases were seen for turmeric futures (+2%), and cardamom (+21%) as limited arrivals in key producing regions were met with firm demand from overseas buyers. A long dry spell, which began in January, was the main cause for the reduction in supply. In the US, Chinese garlic powder rose (+5%).
Apple prices rose seasonally in the EU, with increases seen in Poland (+5%) and Germany (+1%). UK Cox apples ended up sharply (+15%). Pears rose (+6%) on average in the EU. Lemons in the UK fell (-5%) as did limes (-19%). Spanish oranges fell (-16%) while Brazilian oranges rose (+5%), as did US oranges from Florida (+11%). Banana prices ended up in Germany (+13%) as production fell in the Caribbean due to colder weather. Strawberry prices fell sharply in the UK (-35%) and Germany (-26%) as Spanish and Moroccan fruit production increased. Grape prices declined in the UK (-22%) and Germany (-30%) as Chilean and South African supply is reported to be good. Orange juice prices ended higher (+8%) in Rotterdam, whilst prices fell (-7%) on ICE NY after reaching record highs in January. Chinese apple juice prices fell slightly (-1%) from the peak reached in last month.
Very cold weather conditions across Europe at the start of the month meant poor growing conditions in major producing regions, such as Spain, leading to considerable price increases in the market. Potato prices rose in Germany (+8%), the UK (+4%) and France (+3%). Lettuce prices rose sharply in France (+42%), Germany (+34%) and the UK (+14%) as a consequence of reduced supply from Spain. Tomatoes ended the month up in Spain (+50%), Poland (+9%), and Germany (+4%) as cold weather conditions affected supply. Cucumber prices also rose sharply (+42%) on average across Europe, while broccoli prices had large increases in Germany (+62%), the UK (+52%) and France (+10%) again due to the cold temperatures in the main producing regions. Carrot prices rose in Germany (+13%) while prices remained steady in the UK (0%) and France (0%). Cauliflower prices rose across Europe (+36%) as the Spanish season came to an end and production is beginning to return to Northern Europe.
Meat & Poultry
Prices for South American liveweight cattle were mixed last month with increases seen in Argentina (+12%) and Uruguay (+3%) while falls were registered in Brazil (-6%). EU deadweight beef prices rose on average (+1%) with the largest gains seen in Germany (+6%), France (+3%) and the Netherlands (+2%). However, prices fell in Ireland (-3%). New Zealand lamb fell (-11%) while prices rose slightly in the UK (+1%). Elsewhere, EU lamb prices were more mixed with prices down for Germany (-4%), France (-1%) and the Netherlands (-1%), while increases were seen for Austria (+3%) and Ireland (+2%). EU deadweight pork reference prices increased (+5%) on average with larger gains seen for Germany (+6%), Spain (+9%) and Poland (+10%). EU piglet prices increased (+9%) due to high demand from EU pig producers who are increasing their herd size. Deadweight chicken prices throughout the EU were up on average (+1%) due to sharp gains seen in Poland (+22%) as prices there converged with other EU countries. Chicken prices in Spain (-1%) and the UK (-1%) fell. Brazilian chicken prices increased sharply (+16%) in response to a recovery from the large fall seen in January. Chinese liveweight market prices for chicken were stable (+0%) while Thai liveweight chicken prices fell (-4%). For fish, Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon prices increased again (+3%) as prices begin to return to a more normal level.
Milk & Dairy
Butter prices continued to fall on good supplies across the world, with declines seen in the Netherlands (-8%), Germany (-5%), the US (-4%), New Zealand (-4%) and the UK (-4%). EU milk deliveries continued to show increases, supported by high farmgate prices seen across the continent, with volumes up 3.2% in December 2011 year-on-year. Italian liquid skimmed milk prices rose (+15%) while liquid whole milk prices dropped slightly (-1%). SMP prices fell in France (-4%), Germany (-3%), the UK (-2%), the US (-3%) and New Zealand (-3%). WMP also fell in Germany (-4%), the Netherlands (-1%) and New Zealand (-3%). Whey powder in the US dropped sharply (-22%) on the CME due to increased availability on the spot market. US Cheddar prices fell (-1%) but have remained stable (0%) in the UK. Declines were seen for Italian
Parmesan (-2%) and Grana Padano (-2%). EU egg product prices rose sharply for both liquid eggs (+35%) and powdered products (+16%). EU shell eggs also rose (+17%) due to increased producer costs, lower supply and the higher demand experienced at this time of year. London wholesale egg prices ended up (+5%).
Energy prices rose in February in line with higher crude oil prices as instability in the Middle East raised concerns over global supply. Brent crude oil rose (+10%) on ICE London with US light sweet crude oil on NYMEX also up (+6%). EU prices ended up for gas oil (+11%), naphtha (+10%), diesel (+10%), petrol (+8%) and heavy fuel (+5%). In the US, increases were seen for physical prices for diesel (+8%) and petrol futures (+9%) on NYMEX. Natural gas prices rose on ICE London (+9%) and on Bacton UK (+3%), while prices on NYMEX were unchanged (0%). Coal prices fell in the EU (-2%) and were steady in South Africa (0%) amidst ample global supply. Electricity prices were up in Europe (+14%).
Chemicals & Plastics
Prices for chemicals and plastics moved up driven by increases in petrochemical feedstocks amidst higher crude oil prices. In Europe, price rises were seen for propylene (+18%), benzene (+17%), ethylene (+16%) and styrene (+12%). EU plastic prices firmed accordingly with gains seen in PET (+10%), LLDPE film (+10%), LDPE film (+9%), HDPE blow film (+8%), PP (+8%), PS (+7%) and EPS (+7%). Petrochemical prices also strengthened in Asia with ethylene (+9%), PP (+6%), LLDPE (+5%), HDPE (+4%), PVC (+4%), LDPE (+3%), PS (+3%) all up. In fertilisers, prices for phosphoric acid was down in the EU (-1%), while prices rose in the US (+2%). Urea (-2%) and diammonium phosphate (-8%) were both down in the US.
Pulp & Paper
Delivered NBSK pulp prices were steady in the US (0%) but fell in Europe (-2%). NBSK pulp demand in Europe was not strong, with demand in January 2012 down by 9% from January 2011. However, for BHK pulp, January 2012 consumption was only 2% down from January 2011. BHK pulp prices recovered in both China (+4%) and Europe (+6%). Pulp stocks at EU ports fell in January by 10.4% month-on-month to 1.2m tonnes. EU kraftliner (-1%) and cartonboard (-2%) fell over the month, while prices recovered for testliner (+3%) and waste-based fluting (+6%). EU newsprint prices weakened (-1%) with coated reels and copy paper both slightly down (-1%). EU waste paper rose on average (+3%).
This market was mixed last month with prices for base metals showing a broad band of movements on the LME. Tin (+8%), copper (+1%) and aluminium (+1%) were up, whilst nickel (-2%), zinc (-4%) and lead (-6%) fell. EU steel prices were strengthened by a rise in German automotive demand with hot rolled (HR) coil (+5%), cold rolled (CR) coil (+8%) and stainless steel (+11%) all up, while Chinese steel prices remained subdued for HR coil (+1%), CR coil (0%) and stainless steel (-1%). CIS prices rose for HR coil (+2%), but were unchanged for CR coil (0%). US prices fell for HR coil (-4%) and CR coil (-4%). Chinese iron ore fine prices were unchanged (0%), but pellets rose (+2%). In London, precious metals saw increases for silver (+8%), platinum (+10%) and gold (+6%).
Acrylic fibre CN (+11%), platinum (US) (+9%), nylon chips (SE Asia) (+10%), Baltic supramax (-15%).
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